Move cert noise calibration into doppelganger scout

Instead of a separate cert_probe.go that duplicates the scout's TLS
connection logic, measure the cert chain size directly from the same
HTTPS connections the scout already makes.

Changes:
- Extend ScoutConnResult with payloadLen field
- Add Write interception to ScoutConn for handshake boundary detection
- Scout.learn() now computes cert size (sum of ApplicationData between
  CCS and first client Write) alongside inter-record durations
- Ganger aggregates cert sizes across raids and exposes NoiseParams()
  via atomic pointer for lock-free reads from proxy goroutines
- Proxy reads NoiseParams from Ganger on each handshake instead of
  probing at startup
- Remove cert_probe.go, disk cache, and related config options
  (noise-cache-path, noise-cache-ttl, noise-probe-count)

Falls back to legacy 2500-4700 range until the first scout raid
completes (typically within 1-2 seconds of startup).

mtglib/internal/doppel/ganger.go

@@ -2,7 +2,9 @@ package doppel
 
 import (
 	"context"
+	"fmt"
 	"sync"
+	"sync/atomic"
 	"time"
 
 	"github.com/9seconds/mtg/v2/essentials"
@@ -12,8 +14,22 @@ const (
 	DoppelGangerMaxDurations  = 4096
 	DoppelGangerScoutRaidEach = 6 * time.Hour
 	DoppelGangerScoutRepeats  = 10
+
+	MinCertSizesToCalculate = 3
 )
 
+// NoiseParams holds the measured cert chain size for FakeTLS noise calibration.
+// If Mean is 0, the caller should use a legacy fallback.
+type NoiseParams struct {
+	Mean   int
+	Jitter int
+}
+
+type scoutRaidResult struct {
+	durations []time.Duration
+	certSizes []int
+}
+
 type gangerConnRequest struct {
 	ret     chan<- Conn
 	payload essentials.Conn
@@ -33,6 +49,9 @@ type Ganger struct {
 
 	stats     *Stats
 	durations []time.Duration
+	certSizes []int
+
+	noiseParams atomic.Pointer[NoiseParams]
 
 	connRequests chan gangerConnRequest
 }
@@ -48,6 +67,16 @@ func (g *Ganger) Run() {
 	})
 }
 
+// NoiseParams returns the current cert-size-based noise parameters.
+// Returns zero-value NoiseParams if not yet measured (caller should use fallback).
+func (g *Ganger) NoiseParams() NoiseParams {
+	if p := g.noiseParams.Load(); p != nil {
+		return *p
+	}
+
+	return NoiseParams{}
+}
+
 func (g *Ganger) NewConn(conn essentials.Conn) (Conn, error) {
 	rvChan := make(chan Conn)
 	req := gangerConnRequest{
@@ -81,7 +110,7 @@ func (g *Ganger) run() {
 		}
 	}()
 
-	scoutCollectedChan := make(chan []time.Duration)
+	scoutCollectedChan := make(chan scoutRaidResult)
 	currentScoutCollectedChan := scoutCollectedChan
 
 	updatedStatsChan := make(chan *Stats)
@@ -94,18 +123,29 @@ func (g *Ganger) run() {
 		select {
 		case <-g.ctx.Done():
 			return
-		case durations := <-currentScoutCollectedChan:
-			g.durations = append(g.durations, durations...)
+		case result := <-currentScoutCollectedChan:
+			g.durations = append(g.durations, result.durations...)
 
 			if len(g.durations) > DoppelGangerMaxDurations {
 				copy(g.durations, g.durations[len(g.durations)-DoppelGangerMaxDurations:])
 				g.durations = g.durations[:DoppelGangerMaxDurations]
 			}
 
+			// Update cert sizes and recompute noise params.
+			g.certSizes = append(g.certSizes, result.certSizes...)
+			if len(g.certSizes) > DoppelGangerMaxDurations {
+				g.certSizes = g.certSizes[len(g.certSizes)-DoppelGangerMaxDurations:]
+			}
+
+			if len(g.certSizes) >= MinCertSizesToCalculate {
+				g.updateNoiseParams()
+			}
+
 			if len(g.durations) < MinDurationsToCalculate {
 				continue
 			}
 
+			durations := g.durations
 			currentScoutCollectedChan = nil
 			g.wg.Go(func() {
 				select {
@@ -129,8 +169,45 @@ func (g *Ganger) run() {
 	}
 }
 
-func (g *Ganger) runScoutRaid(rvChan chan<- []time.Duration) {
-	durations := []time.Duration{}
+func (g *Ganger) updateNoiseParams() {
+	if len(g.certSizes) == 0 {
+		return
+	}
+
+	sum := 0
+	for _, s := range g.certSizes {
+		sum += s
+	}
+
+	mean := sum / len(g.certSizes)
+
+	maxDev := 0
+	for _, s := range g.certSizes {
+		d := s - mean
+		if d < 0 {
+			d = -d
+		}
+
+		if d > maxDev {
+			maxDev = d
+		}
+	}
+
+	if maxDev < 100 {
+		maxDev = 100
+	}
+
+	np := &NoiseParams{Mean: mean, Jitter: maxDev}
+	g.noiseParams.Store(np)
+
+	g.logger.Info(fmt.Sprintf(
+		"updated noise params: mean=%d jitter=%d samples=%d",
+		mean, maxDev, len(g.certSizes),
+	))
+}
+
+func (g *Ganger) runScoutRaid(rvChan chan<- scoutRaidResult) {
+	var result scoutRaidResult
 
 	for range g.scoutRaidRepeats {
 		learned, err := g.scout.Learn(g.ctx)
@@ -138,13 +215,18 @@ func (g *Ganger) runScoutRaid(rvChan chan<- []time.Duration) {
 			g.logger.WarningError("cannot learn", err)
 			continue
 		}
-		durations = append(durations, learned...)
+
+		result.durations = append(result.durations, learned.Durations...)
+
+		if learned.CertSize > 0 {
+			result.certSizes = append(result.certSizes, learned.CertSize)
+		}
 	}
 
 	select {
 	case <-g.ctx.Done():
 		return
-	case rvChan <- durations:
+	case rvChan <- result:
 	}
 }